I am an associate professor in the department of government and politics and a research fellow in the center for international development and conflict management (cidcm) at the University of Maryland. My research interests include mathematical and statistical models of international conflict and cooperation, civil war, Asian security politics, disputes over natural resources/territory, and experimental studies of conflict bargaining. A full copy of my curriculum vitae is available as a pdf document, and links to publications and citation counts can be found on my google scholar page.
If you are interested in participating in the GVPT bargaining experiments, please follow this link and register.
This paper provides a laboratory test of a model of bargaining in the shadow of conflict. Conflict rates are significant and are essentially invariant to power asymmetries. This invariance is due to the paradox of countervailing concessions.
“An Experimental Analysis of Asymmetric Power in Conflict Bargaining" (with Katri Sieberg, David Clark, Charles Holt, and Timothy Nordstrom), Games, 2013, 4(3) pages 375-397.
Matlab code for MLE estimation of the QRE.
All of my course materials are being moved to Elms Blackboard
Formal Models of Politics (GVPT 831)
Quantitative International Relations (GVPT 808D)
Modeling International Relations (GVPT 808D)
Quantitative Methods for Political Science (GVPT622)
Advanced Quantitative Methods For Political Science (GVPT 722)
Politics of the United Nations
Op-ed in the Baltimore Sun on arming the Syrian rebels.
Decomposing the Relationship Between Contiguity and Militarized Conflict, William Reed and Daina Chiba. American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 54, No. 1 (Jan., 2010), pp. 61-73
Substitution is in the Variance: Resources and Foreign Policy Choice, David H. Clark, Timothy Nordstrom, and William Reed. American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 52, No. 4 (Oct., 2008), pp. 763-773
War, Power, and Bargaining, William Reed, David H. Clark, Timothy Nordstrom, and Wonjae Hwang. Journal of Politics, Vol. 70, No. 4 (Oct., 2008), pp. 1203-1216 Roll Call Data]
The Strategic Sources of Foreign Policy Substitution, David H. Clark and William Reed. American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 49, No. 3 (Jul., 2005), pp. 609-624
Information, Power, and War, William Reed. American Political Science Review, Vol. 97, No. 4 (Nov., 2003), pp. 633-641
A Unified Model of War Onset and Outcome, David H. Clark and William Reed. Journal of Politics, Vol. 65, No. 1 (Feb., 2003), pp. 69-91
War and Rivalry among Great Powers, Douglas Lemke and William Reed. American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 45, No. 2 (Apr., 2001), pp. 457-469
A Unified Statistical Model of Conflict Onset and Escalation, William Reed. American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 44, No. 1 (Jan., 2000), pp. 84-93
Alliance Duration and Democracy: An Extension and Cross-Validation of “Democratic States and Commitment in International Relations”, William Reed. American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 41, No. 3 (Jul., 1997), pp. 1072-1078
using stata on terpconnect
To access stata from your desktop computer use ssh (If you are using a windows machine, type this command at the command prompt. If you are using a mac, type this in a terminal window - Applications/Utilities/Terminal.app):
ssh -Y firstname.lastname@example.org
Where username is your UMD uid/directory id. You will be prompted for your directory password.
Once you have been connected to terpconnect, type:
Now you are ready to run stata. To start stata interactively type:
To run a stata .do file, you can use batch mode. Instead of starting stata in interactive mode, type:
stata -b “do mydofile.do”
where mydofile.do is the name of your do file.
This will produce a plain text log file that you can view with the more command by typing:
If you would like to edit or create a do file you can use the pico text editor. Type:
I hereby waive all claim of copyright in this work; it may be used or altered in any manner without attribution or notice. Attribution, of course, is appreciated.
Matlab code for MLE estimation of a QRE model of 2 stage bargaining used in “An Experimental Analysis of Asymmetric Power in Conflict Bargaining.”
Matlab code to analyze the Fearon (1995) ultimatum model with inequity-aversion utility functions.
Ztree program to study the commitment problem dynamic.
Stata code to draw the optimal bundle of foreign policy conflict and cooperation.
Stata code to create dyadic and directed dyadic data frames.
Stata code for aqre model (aka strategic probit/logit). The aqre_example.do pulls data from Curt Signorino’s war1800.dta.
My peace science presentation on the rebels’ credibility problem.
Slides from a seminar on decomposition methods presented to the Georgetown Quantitative Models Working Group